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Extracted Text (OCR)
Notable trends and dislocations (Europe)
European equities ended the week lower mainly due to a tech-driven sell-off on 12-Jun
during which the SX8P (European tech sector) witnessed its largest 1-day decline since
the UK’s EU referendum. Nevertheless, implied vols across European indices remained
mostly unchanged near 2 year lows.
¢ European intra-sector correlation continues to decline while inter-sector
correl has hit a floor: The average EU intra-sector 3m correlation is near a 10-
year low currently. In contrast, the average 3m inter-sector correlation reached a
10-year low in Mar-17 driven by post US election reflation trades but is now
rising off its lows likely driven by an unwind of reflation trades.
- §X7E implied-realised correlation near 5-year highs: SX7E 6m implied
correlation fell since Mar-17 but the implied-realised correlation spread remains
in the 88" 5-year percentile driven by even lower realised correlation.
* _ESTX50 3M put skew is near 5 year highs, in stark contrast to SXEP
(European Oil & Gas equity) put skew which is close to 5 year lows.
* The overall seasonality in ESTX50 realised volatility since 1987 has been one of
relatively lower vol during the summer months vs. autumn. In particular, May
stands out as the lowest vol month across most 10 year horizons, and this
also appears to be the case so far this year.
EU Intra-sector correl continues to decline while inter-sector correl is supported
The average European intra-sector 3m correlation is near a 10-year low, partly driven by
divergence within the personal & household goods, utilities, real-estate, autos and
insurance sectors (Chart 18 and Table 3). Interestingly, the average 3m inter-sector
correlation reached a 10-year low on 14-Mar-17 (as the 8-Nov-16 US election led to the
outperformance of sectors sensitive to inflation) but inter-sector correlation now seems
supported likely driven by the unwind of reflation trades (Chart 18).
Bankof America <> ’ arietive
Merrill Lynch Global Equity Volatility Insights | 20 June 2017 11
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