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when it would no longer be the number one power in the world. In his
2003 Yale University address on “Global Challenges,” he said:
If you believe that maintaining power and control and absolute freedom of
movement and sovereignty is important to your country’s future, there’s
nothing inconsistent in that [the US continuing to behaving unilaterally].
[The US is] the biggest, most powerful country in the world now... . But
if you believe that we should be trying to create a world with rules and
partnerships and habits of behavior that we would like to live in when
we’re no longer the military political economic superpower in the world,
then you wouldn’t do that. It just depends on what you believe.
Long before 2003, Clinton wanted to begin preparing Americans for this
new world. “Clinton believed [...] what we had in the wake of the cold
war was a multilateral moment — an opportunity to shape the world
through our active leadership of the institutions Clinton admired and
[Charles] Krauthammer disdained,” writes Strobe Talbott, former deputy
secretary of state in his book The Great Experiment: The Story of Ancient
Empires, Modern States, and the Quest for a Global Nation. “But Clinton
kept that belief largely to himself while he was in office.... political
instincts told him it would be inviting trouble to suggest that the sun
would someday set on American preeminence.” Sadly, few Americans
have heeded Clinton’s wisdom. Few dare to mention that America could
well be number two. I discovered this when I chaired a panel on “the
future of American power” at the 2012 World Economic Forum in Davos.
After citing projections that America would have the second largest
economy in just a few years, I asked the American panelists — two
senators, a congresswoman and a former deputy national security advisor
— whether Americans are ready to become number two. To my shock,
none could acknowledge publically this possibility.
America may well become number two faster than anyone has anticipated.
According to the most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF)
projections, China will have larger share of global GDP than the United
States by 2017. In 1980, in PPP terms, the US share of the global economy
was 25 percent, while China’s was 2.2 percent. By 2017, the US share will
decline to 17.9 percent, and China’s will rise to 18.3 percent. Even if
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