EFTA02491237.pdf

From: Sent: To: Subject: Ok jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> Friday, August 14, 2015 8:42 PM Richard Kahn Re: An example - Taiwan 2Q GDP -6.5%; exports fell 8.32% On Friday, August 14, 2015, Richard Kahn < wrote:<=r> Shall I ask Daniel=for trade ideas on shorting Asian currencies. Are you thinking about puts =nd calls in a 0 cost trade or selling calls or buying puts outright. =br> Please advise on thoughts and notional values. =/div> Thank you. Sent from my iPhon= On Aug 14, 2015, at 12:05 PM, jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> wrote: Monday Forwarded mes=a _e From: Barrett, Paul S ,> > Date: Friday, August 14, 201= Subject: An example - Taiwan 2Q GDP -6.5%; exports fell 8.32% To: B=ad Wechsler =c: Barrett Team lavascript:_e(%7B%7D,1cvm <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml&=39;, jeevacation@gmai <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,icvml"'ee=acation@ mail.com' <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,icvml <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,icvml =rad =U> "Jeffrey Epstein ( > jeevacation@gmail=com .com ;> )" <jeevacation@gmail.com .» ="Rich Joslin =hen we get the balance sheet and ISDA done, we will likely want to short s=me Asian currencies (unless they move much lower from here). See the Taiwan data below. EFTA_R1_01613143 EFTA02491237 =u> =aul =u> =u> =u> Taiwan came ou= with its preliminary Q2 GDP data last night and the numbers were weaker t=an expected. (Q2 GDP @ -6.56% pace!) < = > CHART ONE:4)=A0 =C240 40=A0 GDP Contracted at a -6.=6% pace in Q2. That was the worst number in almost six years. <=span> CHART TWO:40=A0 =C240 =C240 Exports for Q2 declined at a -8.32% pace. Also the worst number since the last recession.=/span> </=> <image002jpg>=u> =/P> =/p> Source: Bloomberg 14Aug2015=/span> =span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans- s=rif";color:#5f5f5r> <=U> =span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-s=rir;color:itlf497d">Paul Barrette Managing Director Global Investment Op=ortunities Group I J.P. Morgan Securities LLC I J.P. Morgan Private Bank I =1.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A. 2 EFTA_R1_01613144 EFTA02491238 NOT AN OFFICIAL CONFIRMATIO=: For informational purposes only.Q=A0 This report does not represent an official account of the holdings, bal=nces, or transactions made in your account and is being provided at your request. Please refer to your monthly account statement for =he official record of all of your account activities. For question, =lease call your J.P. Morgan representative. In discuss=on of options and other strategies, results and risks are based solely on =ypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider =arefully whether option or option-related products in general, as well as =he products or strategies discussed herein are suitable to their needs. In=actual transactions, the client's counterparty for OTC derivatives applications is JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.= and affiliates. For a copy of the "Characteristics and Risks of S=andardized Options" booklet, please contact your JPMorgan Advisor.=u> This email=is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions includ=ng on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completenes= of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal enti=y disclaimers, available at http://www.=pmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email chttp://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/=isclosures/email> . <imagel.gif> =sia Pacific Economic Research Taiwan: 2Q GDP weakened no=ably, main drag coming from the export sector, especially tech Taiwan's 2415 real GDP growth slo=ed notably to 0.52%oya (compared to the advanced reading of 0.64%), following the upwardly-rev=sed growth at 3.84%oya in 1O (previously: 3.37%). The Directorate Gene=al of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) estimates that, seasonally=adjusted, real GDP contracted 6.56% q/q, saar in 2Q15, following the positive growth at =.3% q/q saar in 1O. Breakdown of 2Q GDP by expenditure highli=hts that the notable contraction in the economy (in %q/q saar terms) was mainly dragged by export sector weakn=ss (especially for tech products). On the domestic front, GDP expen=iture data showed decent growth in private consumption in 2Q, though GDP i=dustry data suggested that consumption-related 3 EFTA_R1_01613145 EFTA02491239 sectors, such as wholesale and retail t=ade, remained subdued. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth rebounded decent=y in 2Q, which may hint at some potential moderate recovery for the econom= going into 2H15. Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand The significant weakness in Taiwan4b=99s 2Q GDP, with the most severe quarterly GDP contraction (in %q/q saar t=rms) since the worst moments of the global financial crisis, was mainly dragged by the export and manufacturing sectors, with the notable u=derperformance of the tech sector (tech IP fell significantly at 34.5% 3m/=m saar in June). Looking ahead, on the external front, our=global team continues to expect stronger global growth in 2H15, which will=hopefully provide some support for moderate recovery in Taiwan's export and manufacturing sector. In this regards, it is w=th noting: (1) Taiwan's July exports improved moderately (up 3.2% =/m sa in real terms); (2) tech exports, following the significant weakness=in 2Q rebounded 7.7% m/m sa in July; (3) capital goods imports rose notably at 93.6% m/m sa and 13.2% m/m sa in July and Ju=e respectively, suggesting decent expansion in corporate capex, which in t=rn hints at some moderate recovery in export and manufacturing sectors in =oming months. On the domestic front, it is worth noting=that the slowing in industrial activity through 2Q seemed to have graduall= fed into the labor market, with employment growth losing momentum lately (in % m/m sa terms, total employment stopped growing in Ju=e), which could restrain private consumption outlook going into 2H15. Overall, our forecast for Taiwan'= full-year 2015 GDP growth now stands at 1.3%oya, assuming moderate recove=y in the sequential growth trend to average at about 3.0% q/q saar in 3Q and 4Q. Meanwhile, regarding monetary policy, con=idering the notable weakness in latest macro data, the possibility of a po=ential policy rate cut, sometime during 2H15, seems to be on the rise. Besides, as the major source of recent macro weakness larg=ly originated from the external sector, managing currency competitiveness =ould be an important policy tool going ahead. For further details of the 2Q GDP report,=looking at the major GDP expenditure components: * =C2* Total exports of goods and services =ontracted notably by 16.5% q/q saar in 2Q, compared to the modest expansio= at 1.7% q/q saar in 10. (In particular, monthly trade data suggested the tech sector was the main drag on 2Q export weakness, as=tech exports contracted 27.0% 3m/3m saar in June.) * =C2* Imports of goods and services expand=d moderately at 3.0% q/q saar in 2Q, following the contraction at 5.5% q/q=saar in 10 (reflecting the notable rebound in 2Q domestic fixed investment). * =C2* On the domestic front, private consu=ption expenditure rose 3.0% q/q saar in 2Q following the solid gain at 4.=% q/q saar in 1O. 4 EFTA_R1_01613146 EFTA02491240 * =C2* Gross fixed capital formation reboun=ed rather notably by 26.8% q/q saar in 2Q, following the contraction at 13=1% q/q saar in 10. Regarding GDP details by industry: * =C2* Manufacturing production contracted =3.4% q/q saar in 2Q, following the moderate gain at 2.2% q/q saar in 10. * =C2* With regard to domestic service sect=rs, wholesales and retail trade, which is closely related to private consu=ption expenditure, contracted 5.1% q/q saar in 2Q, following the decline at 3.4% q/q saar in 10. * =C2* Real estate activity rose modestly a= 1.2% q/q saar in 2Q, following the modest gain at 0.5% q/q saar in 1Q. * =C2" Finance and insurance services expan=ed significantly at 12.9% q/q saar in 2Q, adding to the gain at 17.6% q/q =aar in 10. * =C2* In addition, construction activity c=ntracted 5.3% q/q saar in 2Q adding to the decline at 4.2% q/q saar in 1O= Source: DGBAS <image7.gif> Source: DGBAS <image5.gif> Source: DGBAS <image9.gif> Source: DGBAS, I.P. Morgan Source: DGBAS, MoEA, J.P.Morgan <image2.gif> Source: MoF, DGBAS, Markit, J.P.Morgan <image4.gif> Source: MoF, J.P.Morgan <image6.gif> Source: DGBAS, J.P.Morgan 5 EFTA_R1_01613147 EFTA02491241 Click h=re <https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-gpohsq7/IWVzR=ZPdCY/GPS-1793170-0.pdf> for the full Note and disclosures. <=p> Grace Ng chttp://emaill=nk.jpmorgan.com/t/AOJAAg-Ge/ABB8Nw/Z5OF4Q/AkI/ABPtSw/AO/hruy> <http://emaillink.jpmorgan.comNACVAAg-GQ/ABB8Nw/ZSCIF4Q/Akl/Q7Q/AO/tURr> JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Ho=g Kong Marvin M Chen <http://emaill=nk.jpmorgan.com/t/AQ/AAg-GQ/ABB8Nw/Z5OF4OJAkI/AFDa+w/AQ/z7LC> <=u> http://emaillink.jpmorgan.comNAWAAg-GQ/ABB8Nw/Z5O$4Q/AkI/AFDa- JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Ho=g Kong Visit J.P. Morg=n Markets <http://emaillink.jpmorgan.com/t/AWAAg-GQ/ABB8Nw/MQF4Q/Ak=/AB-0IA/AQ/mh26> for more market-leading research and financia= solutions across the full trade and investment lifecycle. 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