EFTA02492073.pdf

From: Barrett, Paul S < Sent: Tuesday, August 11, 2015 6:09 PM To: Brad Wechsler Cc: Jeffre E stein 'eevacation@gmail.com); Barrett Team; Rich Joslin Subject: FW: Long USD / Short KRW Hi Brad Not sure if you saw but=CNH weakened 3% overnight. KRW down almost 2%. We think this kicks off a cu=rency war in Asia with a race to the bottom. We are still targeting 1250 (6= down from here). Paul<=p> <=pan style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans- ser=f";colorl5F5F5F"> <=spa n> <=pan style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-ser=f";color:#1F497D">Paul Barrette Managing Director I Global Investment Oppo=tunities Group I J.P. Morgan Securities LLC I J.P. Morgan Private Bank I =1.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A. 320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10=22 I T: (212) 622-2770 I F: (212) 310-0108 I </=> <mailto NOT AN=OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION: For informational=purposes only. This report does not represent an official account of=the holdings, balances, or transactions made in your account and is being provided at your request. Please refer to your monthly account statement for the official record of all of your ac=ount activities. For question, please call your J.P. Morgan represent=tive. In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks ar= based solely on hypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks will=vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider carefully whether option or option-related=products in general, as well as the products or strategies discussed herein=are suitable to their needs. In actual transactions, the client's cou=terparty for OTC derivatives applications is JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and affiliates. For a copy of the "Char=cteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" booklet, please contact=your JPMorgan Advisor. This e=ail is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions inc=uding on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, conf=dentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity EFTA_R1_01614587 EFTA02492073 disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosu=es/email <http://www.=pmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email> . From: Barrett, Pa=l S Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2015 5:36 PM To: 'Brad Wechsler' Cc: Barrett Team Subject: Long USD / Short KRW Brad Here is our latest piece on KRW. Calling for more KRW=weakness. <=p> &nb=p; Since mi=-2012, JPY has weakened over 35% vs the USD, yet KRW has only depreciated s=ightly due in large part to a positive current account. (Chart 1) As a result,=KRW has strengthened by approximately 35% vs the JPY over the last three ye=rs — significantly impairing the affordability of Korean exports (YoY=exports fell for a 6th consecutive month in June). As an exampl=, —33% of Korea's GDP is represented by Samsung and Hyundai — b=th heavy export oriented companies (Source: Business Korea) • In addition=to an uncompetitive currency, Korea is suffering from low inflation, high l=vels of debt and near zero interest rates (sound like Japan?) To combat th=se conditions, the BOK has been cutting rates (now at 1.5%), but with=rates already low, it's hard for that to have much of an impact<=o:p> Recently, So=th Korea's National Pension Fund announced that it would diversify - 1.=% of its holdings in to foreign assets (i.e. QE labeled as asset diversific=tion) (Source: FT) • So what does=an export driven economy do when its competitors have devalued their curren=ies, rate cut impact is limited, and debt levels are already high — t=ey have to weaken their currency, and arguably, KRW has far more to correct against JPY than the Euro does agains= USD. Trade: Long USD/ Short KRW 2 EFTA_R1_01614588 EFTA02492074 Additionally.— getting short KRW also satisfies several other go=ls o Owning EM do=nside protection/exposure o Owning a pos=tion benefitting from USD strength o Owning a pos=tion that potentially benefits from China rolling over on its currency post=the IMF review of the SDR basket October 9-11 How does the=trade go wrong o South Korean=t$8217;$ current account balance is +7% of GDP representing one key elem=nt against KRW depreciation. However, the Won is a controlled currency (tra=es through NDFs) and appreciation from trade flow is managed and arguably can be reversed in the event of the government=t48217;s desire to weaken the currency. o Significant=reversal in USD strength, and or JPY weakness (ameliorating the need for th= South Korean government to step-in) Chart 1</=:p> </=> Sources: Bloomberg as of July 2015, JP Morgan, Financial=Times, Business Korea The views and strategies described herein may not be suitable for al= investors. Certain strategies may expose investors to potential risk= and losses. <=pan style="font-size:8.0ptfont-family:"Verdana","sans- ser=f";color:$15E5F5F"> apan style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-ser=f"">Paul Barrett I Managing Director I Global Investment Opportunities Group I J.P. Morgan Securities LLC I J.P. Morgan Private Bank (=1.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A. 320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022 I T: (212)=622-2770 I F: (212) 310-0108 I </=> <mailto 3 EFTA_R1_01614589 EFTA02492075 NOT AN OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION: For informational purposes only.=nbsp; This report does not represent an official account of the holdings, b=lances, or transactions made in your account and is being provided at your=request. Please refer to your monthly account statement for the official record of all of your account activities= For question, please call your J.P. Morgan representative.</=:p> In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks ar= based solely on hypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks will=vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider carefully whether option or option-related=products in general, as well as the products or strategies discussed herein=are suitable to their needs. In actual transactions, the client's cou=terparty for OTC derivatives applications is JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and affiliates. For a copy of the "Char=cteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" booklet, please contact=your JPMorgan Advisor. This e=ail is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions inc=uding on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, conf=dentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www.jpmorgan.com/p=ges/disclosures/email> <=pan style="color:black;background:white">. This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditio=s including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and=completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and=legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www.jpmorgan.com/p=ges/disclosures/email> <=span> 4 EFTA_R1_01614590 EFTA02492076