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Freedom House 2. Marginalizing the opposition: As noted above, authoritarian leaders use their media power to paint critics as knaves or buffoons. Especially through television coverage, opposition figures are presented as clownish, effeminate, shady, elitist, or enslaved by foreign interests. The mes- sage is pounded home day after day, until the image of the opposition as small and unfit to rule is fixed in the public's mind. 3. Tolerating the pseudo-opposition: Having jailed, exiled, or silenced potentially competitive oppo- sition figures, authoritarians tolerate nominal op- position parties that are effectively controlled by the regime. These groups have accepted the su- premacy of the incumbent leadership and settled into their roles in a stage-managed democracy. 4. Criminalizing protest: The crippling of formal opposition parties leads many voters to chan- nel their dissent into loosely organized civic activism, often relying on protests to mobilize support and reach the broader public despite state control of the media. Authoritarian govern- ments have responded by adopting harsher laws on public assembly, enabling them to jail pro- test leaders and even ordinary participants for vaguely defined offenses like disturbing public order and gathering without a permit. Protesters can also be imprisoned on trumped-up charges, such as assaulting a police officer or possessing a weapon. This discourages others from joining the civic movements and prevents them from growing into organized political forces. 5. Discarding term limits: Term limits designed to prevent the concentration of power in one individual have been rolled back, circumvented, or removed altogether in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and many other countries over the past 15 years.'° Endless incumbency denies opposition forces an oppor- tunity to win over both voters and elements of the ruling establishment that may be ready for new leadership. It also promotes personal loy- alty at the expense of public service, stunts the development of possible successors, reinforces the impression that only the current leader is fit to govern, and feeds a self-perpetuating fear of political change. Returning to old habits While modern authoritarian regimes have generally maintained some illusion of pluralism as one of their main concessions to the post-Cold War international or- der, a number of governments have been less attentive to this priority, drifting back toward the electoral tactics, and lopsided results, of 20th-century dictatorships. In Belarus, the election of just two members of the opposition to the rubber-stamp parliament in 2016 was actually regarded as a step forward from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 balloting, in which no opposition candidates won seats. Lukashenka, in power since 1994, was accused of directing an assassination squad prior to the 2001 presidential election. Four politicians and journal- ists who had been critical of the incumbent disappeared prior to the vote. After Lukashenka won another term in a deeply flawed 2010 election, the authorities arrested over 700 protesters, including seven of the nine opposi- tion presidential candidates. The regime later sentenced three of the former candidates to prison terms." Ethiopian opposition members were beaten and arrest- ed during the 2015 electoral campaign. The Semayawi Party reported that more than 50 of its members were arrested ahead of the polls, and nearly half of Semay- awi candidates were deregistered on administrative grounds. The ruling EPRDF and its allies took all 547 seats in the lower house. The 2010 elections were also tightly controlled, with local officials or neighborhood militia going door to door and verifying that residents had registered as members of the EPRDF. Voters were threatened with the loss of their jobs, homes, or gov- ernment services if they did not turn out for the party. The most charismatic opposition figure, the leader of the Unity and Justice Party, Birtukan Mideksa, re- mained in prison during the election, in which opposi- tion candidates took only two seats. The possible motivations for retrograde electoral abus- es vary from country to country, but authoritarians may feel emboldened to drop their quasi-democratic camouflage due to the lack of diplomatic repercus- sions for such actions. The European Union and the United States have criticized Belarus as “Europe's last dictatorship,” but they always seem willing to give Lu- kashenka another chance to improve relations based on the thinnest hopes of reform. Democratic powers have treated Ethiopia as a counterterrorism ally and a model of rapid economic development, granting it bil- lions of dollars in foreign assistance. Elections and democratic renewal Whether through blatant repression or less obvious methods, modern authoritarians seek to control the www.freedomhouse.org 13 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_019247