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Unemployment Benefits: Good News—Unemployment Change In the Past Has Strong (71%) Inverse Correlation with Real GDP Change, so Economic Growth Should Reduce Unemployment Q/Q Unemployment Rate Change & Real GDP Change, CQ1:48 — CQ4:10 7) 200% oe ee. ee 450% 10% -4-----9----9--------- 2-2-2 pee ee eee ee eee ee eee 100% l wr MAN ( Nha 6 | Quarterly Unemployment Change Quarterly Real GDP Change (Inverse Scale) 5% | 1 ny, Wy | | | 50% 10% Jee oo | Be 0, 45% --W------------- -100% —— Quarterly Unemployment Rate Change 20% — Quarterly RealGDP Change (Inverse Scale) 150% 1Q48 1Q53 1958 1Q63 1Q68 1Q73 1Q78 1983 1088 1093 1998 1003 1008 K P Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics. BSF owe poo com USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 125 Unemployment Benefits: Bad News—Newly Extended Unemployment Benefits Could Cost USA Inc. $34 Billion in Next Two Years Net Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits to Federal Government, F2010-2011E $30,000 - ---- --------- 222 ree ne ne ee ee ee ne ee ee ne eee $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits ($MM) F2010E F2011E Note: Net cost of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2010 is expected to decline substantially in F20172E because the deadline to file for extended unemployment benefits expires in November 2010 and federal extended KP unemployment insurance provides benefits for up to 99 weeks (less than two years). Source: Congressional Budget Office, 7/10. (@ EB) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 126 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_020904