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How Much Would Real GDP Need to Grow to Drive USA Inc. to Break-Even Without Policy Changes? 6-7% in F2012E-F2014E & 4-5% in F2015- F2020E...Well Above 40-Year Average of 3% CBO’s Baseline Real GDP Growth vs. Required Real GDP Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E = = 2 £ oO = > Qa Qa oO 5 1 ac 200 2011E 2013E 2015E 2017E 2019E BU ce = ee we cos ome ees wees ew 9 ae ee ome = os ee Mes ce Se ES eG Se Gs ee = Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO Baseline Forecast) Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit = = 1970-2009 Average Real GDP Growth AAYff co = ows ee we eo 5 ome ees oes eS ae Se Om = os ee Me ee SE = ee Se Gs = K P Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10. www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 359 It’s Highly Unlikely That Annual Real GDP Can Grow Faster Than 6%... It Happened Only 8 Times in Past 60 Years and Was Always Linked to a Cyclical Bounce Back CBO’s Baseline Real Annual GDP Growth vs. Required Real Annual GDP Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E in Historical Context (1950-2020E) Real GDP Y/Y Growth (%) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E Real GDP Annual Growth (Historical) Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO's Baseline Forecast) =—— =Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit P Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10. (@ EB) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 360 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021021