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6 | WEDNESDAY, JUNE 5, 2013 Views Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream OBAMA MEETS XI JINPING American policy makers must under- stand that the new Chinese leader needs to bea nationalist to be a reformer. Robert Lawrence Kuhn BEWING What to make of Xi Jinping, China’s new senior leader, who holds his first summit meeting this week with President Barack Obama? The hope is that Xiis a reformer who will guide China through domestic transformation and to responsible statecraft. The fear is that Xiis ana- tionalist, who has set China on an ag- gressive course of bullying its neigh- bors and confronting the United States. The fear seems not unfounded. China has intensified its territorial claims, from island disputes with Japan to vast areas of the South China Sea. Xi frequently inspects People’s Liber- ation Army forces, especially naval fleets, exhorting China’s military to “get ready to fight and to win wars”’ and “to win regional warfare under LT.-oriented conditions.” Xi holds China’s top three positions: head of the ruling Communist Party of China, head of state, and, as chairman of the Central Military Commission, head of the military. He will likely lead China for a decade. Just after becoming party chief in late 2012, Xi announced what would become the hallmark of his administration. ‘‘The Chinese Dream,’ he said, is “‘the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Xi’s Chinese Dream is described as achieving the ‘“Two 100s”’: the material goal of China becoming a ‘‘moderately well-off society” by about 2020, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Com- munist Party, and the modernization goal of China becoming a fully de- veloped nation by about 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic. The Chinese Dream has four parts: Strong China (economically, politically, diplomatically, scientifically, militar- ily); Civilized China (equity and fair- ness, rich culture, high morals); Har- monious China (amity among social classes); Beautiful China (healthy en- vironment, low pollution). “A moderately well-off society” is where all citizens, rural and urban, en- joy high standards of living. This in- cludes doubling the 2010 G.D.P. per cap- ita (approaching $10,000 per person) by about 2020 and completing urbanization (roughly one billion people, 70 percent of China’s population) by about 2030. “Modernization” means China re- gaining its position as a world leader in science and technology as well as in eco- nomics and business; the resurgence of Chinese civilization, culture and mili- tary might; and China participating ac- tively in all areas of human endeavor. If Xi’s nationalism seems at odds with these grand goals, it is not. Here are six reasons why: International Herald Eribune THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES « Need to consolidate power. Xi was not selected by Deng Xiaoping, the archi- tect of reform, as were his predecessors (Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao), and he was not elected by the people. Conven- tional wisdom had it that Xi would be a weak leader. In order to realize his Chinese Dream, Xi needs to assert strength and assure control. So far, he has exceeded expectations. « Need to enable reform. Xi and Premier Li Keqiang are determined to enact far- reaching economic reforms, the most extensive in 15 years, but there is stiff resistance from those whose domi- nance would be diminished and bene- fits cut (such as state-owned enter- prises with ties to party power). This resistance can no longer be couched credibly in terms of ideology, so it appeals to nationalistic aspirations by accusing reformers of ‘‘worshipping Western ways,” “glorifying Western models” or ‘‘caving in to Western pres- sures,” Xi’s proactive nationalism is a strategy of ‘‘offense is the best de- fense’’ — an inoculation, as it were, against the political virus of being labeled ‘‘soft’’ or “pro-Western.” Reformers in China are generally as- sociated with pro-American attitudes and thus subject to fierce public crit- icism. By establishing himself as a na- tionalist operating independently of the United States (his first foreign trip was to Russia), Xiis able to secure econom- icreforms by distinguishing them from serving Western/American interests. * Need to legitimze one-party rule. To perpetuate its rule (which China’s top leaders truly believe is essential for the well-being of the country), the Chinese Communist Party has constructed a grand narrative that is founded on three critical claims: Only the Commu- nist Party can continue to improve cit- izen’s standard of living (and amelior- ate severe social and economic disparities); only the party can main- tain a stable, unified country and con- struct a happy, harmonious society; and only the party can effect the ‘“‘reju- venation of the Chinese nation,” which stresses a firm command of ‘‘core in- terests’”’ (i.e., sovereignty and territori- ality) and increasing global respect. * Maintain stability through unity. China faces numerous internal ten- sions, especially a class-divided popu- lace (rich-poor, urban-rural, coastal-in- land) that have erupted within one generation. Moreover, an increasingly complex society can fracture along mul- tiple fault lines. Pollution, corruption, healthcare, housing, migrant workers, workers’ wages, social cynicism, chan- ging values, among other raging issues, EDITORIAL OPINION threaten to tragment society — and all are exacerbated by an energetic social media. Only nationalism, which reson- ates intrinsically and passionately across Chinese society, can provide suf- ficiently strong social glue. © Differentiate from predecessors. Top Chinese leaders must combine historic- al continuity with their own distin- guishing theories and practices. How shall Xi fare? Economic growth rates must decline, and a host of domestic tensions (or crises) are coming his way, such as public anger at corruption and resis- tance to pollution. Hence another ra- tionale for nationalism. In the past, nationalistic surges were triggered largely by external events (such as NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999). Xi is putting nationalism at the core of his leadership — his nationalism is proactive, riding the high road of pa- triotism and pride. * Personal beliefs. Xi has deep-seated patriotic convictions, the product of family, life and career. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a founder of the new China and a leading reformer under Deng Xiaoping. In 2006, when Xi Jin- ping was party secretary of Zhejiang Province, he told me about Chinese pride and patriotism as motivating China’s historic resurgence — words remarkably similar to his recent pro- nouncements. Sois Xiareformer? A nationalist? The answer is that he is both, because only by being a nationalist can he be a reformer. American policy makers must understand Xi’s nationalism so that when the reigning superpower meets the rising superpower, both can benefit. ROBERT LAWRENCE KUHN is an international investment banker and the author, most recently, of ‘How China's Leaders Think: The Inside Story of China's Reform and What This Means for the Future.” GLOBAL VIEWPOINT/TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023701