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IV. OPPORTUNITY IN THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR The Fund Managers believe a number of macro market factors have aligned to create attractive and lasting conditions for NLV-III’s targeted investment strategy in healthcare technology. Each of these market factors individually would have a direct positive impact on the level of risk and the potential for returns from investments in the healthcare technology sector. The fact that there are positive trends in all of them occurring simultaneously is unprecedented, and the Fund Managers expect that this will create a uniquely positive environment for NLV-III’s investments in the healthcare technology sector. These macro market factors include the following: STRONG GROWTH IN GLOBAL HEALTHCARE MARKETS Healthcare is one of the largest and most dynamic segments of the global economy, and its growth is projected to continue the well-established historical trend of outpacing GDP growth in major economies for at least the next decade.2! In the U.S., since 1970, health care spending per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 8.2% or 2.4 percentage points faster than nominal GDP. The persistence of this trend suggests systematic differences between health care and other economic sectors where growth rates are typically more in line with the overall economy. A smaller difference is projected over the 2011 to 2020 period, where the average annual growth in per capita health spending (5.3%) is projected to be about 140 basis points higher than the growth in GDP (3.9%). This powerful and sustained growth differentiates healthcare from many other large industrial and technology sectors, and it creates a positive backdrop for investment in certain areas within the sector. The drivers of healthcare market growth vary between mature and emerging economies, but in both cases the shifts are resulting in significant increases in per capita health care consumption and predictable increases in spending to meet the rising demand. In developed economies, growth is being driven primarily by an aging population coupled with a continued willingness of payers to cover the costs for new therapeutics and interventions that meaningfully extend or improve the quality of patients’ lives. In the U.S., which is representative of the demographic shifts in other major economies, the number of people over 65 is expected to double over the next three decades, reaching 70 million by 2030 or roughly 20% of the total U.S. population.” This aging demographic has a higher prevalence of disease and the cost of delivering care to treat the diseases of this older demographic is rising steadily. For example, in 2009, the per capita health care cost for a person 65 - 74 years old was approximately $14,000, but it was more than double that ($33,000) for those over 85. Before the end of this decade, the projected per capita annual cost to care for these same two groups is expected to rise to $22,000 (+57%) for 65 - 74 year olds and $55,000 (+67%) for those 85+24. Emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) are also contributing to the growth in health care spending globally, as these emerging markets mature and begin moving towards the standards of their counterparts in developed economies. The size of the middle *! CMS, OECD, Eurostat 72 Historical data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group U.S. Census Bureau Alvarez & Marsal healthcare, getting much closer to the cost precipice 24 CONTROL NUMBER 257 - CONFIDENTIAL HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024035