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G@i~— COWEN WASHINGTON
~——,-:« RESEARCH GROUP
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS
February 25, 2019
a Cannabis
COWEN RESEARCH
Cowen Research
646 562 1330
cowen.research@cowen.com
Vivien Azer
646 562 1351
vivien.azer@cowen.com
John Blackledge
646 562 1359
john.blackledge@cowen.com
Andrew M. Charles, CFA
646 562 1332
andrew.charles@cowen.com
Oliver Chen, CFA
646 562 1424
oliver.chen@cowen.com
John Kernan, CFA
646 562 1324
john.kernan@cowen.com
Phil Nadeau, Ph.D.
646 562 1336
phil.nadeau@cowen.com
Charles Neivert
646 562 1370
charles.neivert@cowen.com
Jeffrey Osborne
646 562 1391
jeffrey.osborne@cowen.com
Charles Rhyee
646 562 1376
charles.rhyee@cowen.com
Doug Schenkel
617 946 3918
doug.schenkel@cowen.com
COWEN WASHINGTON RESEARCH GROUP
Eric Assaraf
202 868 5304
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS
COWEN'S COLLECTIVE VIEW OF CBD - AHEAD
OF THE CURVE SERIES
THE COWEN INSIGHT
In a collaboration featuring 11 analysts spanning Cowen’'s consumer, health care, industrials
and regulatory teams, we offer a deep dive on the global cannabis market, with a particular
emphasis on the U.S. For consumer goods, we believe the U.S. CBD market could represent
a $16 bn opportunity by 2025.
$16 bn Consumer Opportunity (Azer, Blackledge, Charles, Chen & Kernan)
In our monthly proprietary consumer survey (n = ~2,500) we were surprised to see that
nearly 7% of respondents in January 2019 reported using CBD as a supplement. This strong
consumer interest is validated by the growing number of brands and form factors that are
now available through increasingly diverse retail channels, including Amazon, Sephora and
Neiman Marcus. That said, consumption of CBD on-premise will likely take longer, given
regulatory uncertainty. And, while our analysis primarily focuses on consumer staples
applications for CBD, it is interesting to see a growing number of specialty apparel brands
embrace hemp as a sustainable textile.
Retail sales of CBD consumer products in 2018 have been estimated between ~S600 mm
and $2 bn. By 2025, we believe CBD offerings could conservatively generate $16 bn in retail
sales (assuming a ~40% increase in consumer incidence, to 10%, and spend of less than $2 /
day). Our bottom-up analysis anticipates a diverse category, that is still led by traditional
health & wellness form factors (e.g., $6.4 bn in nutraceuticals, and $4 bn in topicals). And,
while likely smaller, we also expect categories like food, beverages, beauty and vapor to all
generate sales between ~$1-2.5 bn by 2025.
Herein, we offer a detailed look at category brand and pricing architecture in the U.S.
CBD market today, as well as detailed discussions of 21 public and private operators that
currently have exposure to the category, including Outperform rated Canopy Growth, Tilray
and Turning Point Brands, which have all announced plans to enter the U.S. CBD market.
The Science of CBD (Nadeau)
Cannabis’s therapeutic potential is attributable to the valuable overlap between
phytocannabinoids (i.e. plant-derived cannabinoids) and the endogenous cannabinoid
system in humans, termed a “therapeutic handshake.” While THC’s activity in the body is
fairly well elucidated, CBD’s pharmacokinetics are less well understood (no specific receptor
for CBD has been identified). Clinical trial results to date demonstrate few adverse effects
from oral CBD doses of up to 1500 mg/day or up to 30mg IV. The scientific understanding
of CBD’s clinical effects is based mostly on studies in specific indications, like epilepsy. GW
Pharma’s Epidiolex (highly potent, pure formulation of CBD) was approved by the FDA in
2018 for the treatment of seizures associated with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome and Dravet
syndrome, and other companies (Tilray, MMJ Phytotech, Insys) have clinical trials underway
in seizure disorders as well.
CBD Hemp Cultivation (Neivert)
ric.assaraf@cowen.com
Any portion of this report prepared
by a member of Cowen Washington
Research Group is intended as
commentary on political, economic
or market conditions and is not
intended as a research report as
defined by applicable regulation.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 41 states have set up cultivation
and production programs to regulate the production of hemp. There is little research on
CBD hemp cultivation methods as hemp cultivation research historically has focused on
fiber and grain/seed. This lack of research, combined with a number of variables that affect
hemp for CBD yield, makes hemp for CBD cultivation much more art than science at this
point. That said, no other crop in the U.S. offers the type of return of the CBD Plasticulture
Model, and we would thus expect the country's two largest crops, corn and soybeans, to
lose some acreage to CBD hemp.
Please see pages 100 to 106 of this report for important disclosures. COWEN.COM
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| Filename | HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024819.jpg |
| File Size | 0.0 KB |
| OCR Confidence | 85.0% |
| Has Readable Text | Yes |
| Text Length | 4,862 characters |
| Indexed | 2026-02-04T16:55:24.585497 |