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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
Topicals
2
Outside of nutraceuticals, we expect the topical CBD market to provide the largest
contribution to industry sales. We believe the non-ingestible nature of the product
makes it more attractive to consumers looking to experiment in CBD and can provide a
source of trial into the category. While the CBD market clearly needs more clinical
research into the benefits of the cannabinoid, it has been suggested that two of the
primary benefits are anti-inflammation and muscle recovery, which can cater to a large
and diverse consumer base.
Over the next two years, we expect the topical CBD market to grow to $1.5 bn (almost
$1 bn less than our outlook for nutraceuticals). We estimate that in 2018, the total
addressable U.S. topical market, which includes both OTC and rx offerings was ~$12.8
bn. If we assume no growth in the category base, a $1.5 bn CBD category by 2020
would imply a ~12% share of the market, the largest market share among all of the
categories analyzed, excluding nutraceuticals.
Figure 48 U.S. Topical Category Generates ~$13 BN In Revenue Figure 49 We Believe CBD Topicals Could Be A $1.5 BN Market in 2 Years
U.S. Addressable Topical Market (S$ in bn) U.S. CBD Topicals ($ in mm)
$14.0 $128 | $12.8 $12.8 $1,600 I $1,500
612.0 I $1,400 I
I 1,200 I
$10.0 >
| $1,000 I
$8.0 I $800 ]
$6.0 I $600 I
$4.0 $400 ;
62.0 " $200
$O
$0.0 2018 +! 2019E 2020E
2018 1 2019E 2020E "
Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company Source: Cowen and Company
Our below scenario analysis provides a wider incremental range of market share
outcomes relative to other categories. We can see that every 5 pts of market share
capture is worth over $600 mm in revenues. While our analysis contemplates a 2% share
of the topical market, we believe that this is unlikely and view the floor at ~7%, which
would imply almost $900 mm in revenues by 2020. Given the number of companies
providing topical solutions, coupled with what we expect to be robust consumer
demand, a market share between 12-17% is not unrealistic.
Figure 50 Topicals Expected To Be a Major Contributor to CBD
2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
Market Share 17%
Absolute Sales ($ in mm) $2,140
Source: Cowen and Company
COWEN.COM 35
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