HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024856.jpg
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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
Energy Drinks
Energy is another beverage category that we feel is ripe for CBD inclusion, as it
continues to expand towards health and wellness propositions. This has been reflected in
consistent strong growth from MNST’s Ultra line, which offers functional benefits
without the sugar, Muscle Monster, which is high in protein, as well as the emergence of
Bang, which contains BCAA. At their recent Analyst Day, MNST indicated that they will
be launching a new product called Reign, which will offer 5x the amount of BCAA as
Bang. As the lines between core energy drinks and health and wellness offerings
continue to blur, we would expect all of the major players to come to market with
offerings that contain CBD and provide incremental functional benefits (such as muscle
recovery).
We believe that by 2020 it is reasonable for CBD’s share of the energy category to reach
~1%, which we view as conservative as it is below the current market share run rate that
Bang has already been able to achieve. A 1% share would imply revenues of ~$180 mm
for the CBD segment, assuming that the category continues to grow at the same 4.3%
CAGR it has delivered over the past three years. We can see below that implied category
revenues for total energy would grow by over $1 bn over the next two years to ~$17 bn.
Figure 63 Almost $200 MM In Revenues Assuming 1% Share By 2020 Figure 64 Extrapolating 4.3% CAGR Results In Category Revenues
Surpassing $17 BN In 2 Years
U.S. CBD Energy Drink Sales ($ in mm) U.S. Energy Drink Sales ($ in bn)
$200 : $180 $18 S16 4 $16 S17
I S16 gg S14 8S a |
$150 I $14 I
I $42 I
I $10 I
mune l $8 I
I $6 I
$50 I &4 I
I ba I
$0 $0 l
2018 2019E 2020E 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: Cowen and Company Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company
40
Note: Assumes 75% coverage in Nielsen
Below we provide a scenario analysis on CBD energy revenues associated with market
share gains. We would note that a 0.3% share by 2020 would be at the low-end of our
expectations and result in revenues of ~$50 mm. As a point of reference, recall that
Mutant, which did not perform to expectations and has essentially been de-prioritized by
MNST, has a current market share of ~0.2%.
Figure 65 Blurred Lines Between Core Energy And H&W Make CBD Ripe For Entry Into Category
2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
Market Share 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% | 1.1% 13% 1.6% 18%
Absolute Sales (S$inmm)| $52 $95 $137 $223 $265 $308
Source: Cowen and Company
COWEN.COM
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024856
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