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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
Beauty
The U.S. beauty category, which is inclusive of skin care, cosmetics, haircare, fragrance,
bath & body, salon styling tools, and other toiletries, is a ~$87 bn industry according to
Euromonitor International and IBIS World Inc. Within mass beauty, the prestige segment
grew 6%, accounting for almost $19 bn in revenue in 2018 according to NPD. If we
extrapolate the 6% growth in prestige beauty out through 2020, that would result in
segment revenues surpassing $21 bn over the next two years.
Figure 76 Total U.S. Beauty Is A ~$87 BN Industry Figure 77 Prestige Can Grow To Over $21 BN By 2020
Total U.S. Beauty Industry Sales ($ in bn) U.S. Prestige Beauty Industry Sales (S in bn)
$100 ee §22.0
681 I $21.4
$80 671974 $21.0 I
$65 I $19.9
$59 $20.0 l
$60
$19.0 $188 |
I
$40
$18.0 ald I
$20 $17.0 '
I
so $16.0 .
2013. 2014 «2015. «-2016«=2017'—s-2018 auL? e018 2013 020k
Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company Source: NPD and Cowen and Company
We expect that CBD beauty will become more of a focus for consumers, as large-scale
manufacturers and retailers begin to roll out more products, which will presumably
generate positive mix and result in a step-change in market share capture. As such, we
believe that a ~1% share of the prestige market is achievable in 2019, doubling to 2% in
2020, which would equate to over $400 mm in sales. The below analysis provides a
scenario of revenue outcomes based on share capture, ranging from ~$200 mm to over
$600 mm.
Figure 78 CBD Beauty Sales Can Surpass $400 MM By 2020 Figure 79 Each 50 bps Of Share Is Worth Over $100 MM In Revenue
U.S. CBD Beauty Sales ($in mm)
$500 $420 2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
$400 I
I
$300 I $240 Market Share 10% 15% 2.5% 3.0%
$200 I
] Absolute Sales ($inmm) $209 $314 ) | $526 $631
$100 $60 : =
SO
2018 q 2019E 2020E
Source: Cowen and Company Source: Cowen and Company
44 COWEN.COM
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