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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
Beer
2
We believe CBD infused beer can serve as a niche segment ina rapidly evolving beer
category. With core beer under pressure, a continued theme from the key manufacturers
within the space has been a focus on innovation, as well as a move away from alcohol
into low and no-alcohol offerings (ABI is targeting 20% of portfolio to be low / no alcohol
by 2025).
On the innovation front, hard seltzer looks to be resonating with consumers, which we
believe is sticky, as it offers consumers a new product and opportunity to drive
incremental drinking occasions, while checking the box from a health and wellness
standpoint. In 2018, the hard seltzer category achieved a 1% market share of the
combined beer category, which includes, core beer, cider and FMBs. If we assume that
CBD-infused beer is able to capture a modest fifth of that amount of share by 2020 (~20
bps), that could result in a revenue opportunity of over $130 mm. We have been hearing
growing interest in companies looking to combine CBD in alcoholic beer to offer potential
hangover relief.
Figure 66 Hard Seltzer Achieved A 1% Dollar Share In 2018 Figure 67 Assuming ~20 Bps Of Share For CBD Beer = $135 MM
1.2% U.S. Hard Seltzer $ Share U.S. CBD Beer Sales ($ in mm)
1.0% $150 $135
1.0% I
0.8% I
. ‘0
$100 I $90
0.6% I
0.4% 0.3% I
° $50 $36
0.0% 50 I
Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company Source: Cowen and Company
These estimates are benchmarked to a category that has grown sales at a 1.6% CAGR
over the past three years. If we assume Nielsen provides 50% coverage of the total
category and extrapolate that growth out, total off-premise revenues should approach
$72 bn by 2020. We provide a sensitivity analysis below on the 2020 revenue
opportunity based on different levels of market share capture. We estimate every 5 bps
of share is worth $36 mm.
Figure 68 1.6% Growth Should Result In Category Revs Of ~$72 BN Figure 69 Each 5 bps Of Share Is Worth $36 MM In Revenue
U.S. Combined Beer Sales ($ in bn)
974 I 672 2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
$72 | $72
S69 $70
$70 eee I Market Share 0.09% 0.14% % | 0.24% 0.29%
968 $67
$66 I Absolute Sales ($ inmm) | $63 $135 $171 $207
$64 I
$62 l
Source: The Nielsen Company and Cowen and Company Source: Cowen and Company
Note: Assumes 50% coverage in Nielsen; off-premise sales only
COWEN.COM 441
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