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Extracted Text (OCR)
COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
Food (Confections)
2
The food category, which we classify as confections, including gum drops, chocolates,
baked goods, and bars, is expected to be one of the smaller revenue opportunities
relative to nutraceuticals, topicals and beverages. That said by 2020, we believe the
sales can surpass $400 mm, should the category increase its share of overall CBD to 7%
by 2020. In the U.S., we estimate that the confection category (chocolate, non-chocolate
and gum) grew to $25.5 bn in 2018, reflecting a 5.5% YoY growth rate. If we
extrapolate that growth out over the next 2 years, the total implied confection market
would surpass $28 bn. A$420 mm CBD food category would reflect just a 1.5% share of
the total confectionary industry.
Figure 90 Confectionary CBD Sales Can Surpass 400 MM By 2020 Figure 91 Extrapolating 5.5% Growth Results In Category Revenues
Surpassing $28 BN In 2 Years
U.S. CBD Confectionary Sales ($ in mm) 2516 U.S. Confectionary Sales ($ in bn)
$450 $420 aad
8400 I $28.0
I $26.9
$350 1 $27.0
300
> | $26.0 $25.5
$250 i
$25.0
$200 I $24.1
$150 I §24.0
7200 l $23.0
$50 \
$0 $22.0
2018 2019E 2020E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Source: Cowen and Company Source: IRI and Cowen and Company
Note: 2018 sales reflect latest 52 weeks ended 3/25/18
The below sensitivity contemplates the overall revenue opportunity based on CBD
confections share of the overall category. While we believe a 1.5% share is reasonable
and achievable, the revenue outcomes range from ~$100 mm to $700 mm based on the
level of market share gains achieved over the next two years.
Figure 92 We Believe Sales Can Range From Over $100 MM To ~$700 MM Based On Level Of Share
Capture
2020 Market Share Scenario Analysis
Market Share
Absolute Sales ($ in mm)
Source: Cowen and Company
COWEN.COM 49
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