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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
prospects, CBD finished products are highly profitable. While it is still early days, both
Charlotte’s Web and CV Sciences are EBITDA positive, generating 30% margins in the
most recent quarter, which is an encouraging sign. This intersects at a period where
other companies across the broad cannabis landscape have been investing heavily in
SG&A, which includes but is not limited to headcount increases and R&D.
_ As evidenced by the above chart, in addition to offering very strong revenue growth
Figure 104 CWEB and CVSI Are Posting Strong EBITDA... Figure 105 ...With Margins Exceeding 30%
MRQ Adj. EBITDA (in$ mm) MRQ Adj. EBITDA Margin
$15.0 $13.8 40.0% 30.5% 30.4%
20.9%
$10.0 20.0%
$5.4 9
A. 0.0%
$5.0 >
$0.4 -20,.0%
30.0 -40.0%
-$0.9
“$5.0 -60.0%
-$5.5
-$10.0 “S74 -80.0% -73.3%
CWEB CVSI | TPB GTI 1933 CURA TLRY CWEB CVSI | TPB GTI 1933 CURA TLRY
CBD CBD-Crossover/ Other CBD CBD-Crossover/Other
Note: 1933 = 1019 (ended 10/18) (ended 12/18), All others are 3Q18 (ended 9/18). Note: 1933 = 1019 (ended 10/18) (ended 12/18), All others are 3Q18 (ended 9/18).
AUD/USD = 0.72 AUD/USD = 0.72
Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company
While Charlotte’s Web generated 172% growth last year, we can see that sales are
expected to remain robust. Charlotte’s Web is guiding for 2018 revenues to be between
$65-80 mm, which would represent ~81% growth at the midpoint of the range. For
2019, the company is guiding for $120-170 mm, which would represent 100% growth
at the midpoint. Looking out to 2020, current consensus estimates of $295 mm would
imply further robust growth at over 100%. With momentum in CBD expected to ramp
on a go-forward basis, we would look for these more established, well capitalized
companies such as Charlotte’s Web, CV Sciences and Elixinol to consolidate market
share in the form of distribution gains from new channels coming online as well asa
from considerable amount of consolidation.
Figure 106 Charlotte’s Web’s Top-Line Outlook
Charlotte's Web Revenue Estimates (in$ mm)
$350
$300 YoY Growth:
$250 2018 = ~81%
2019 = ~100%
$200 2020 = ~103%
$150
$100
$50
so
2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Source: Company Reports, Bloomberg
60 COWEN.COM
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