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Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] And, of course, without a housing recovery, there can’t be prosperity, and, as shown in Figure 3 below, there is very little prospect for a housing recovery anytime soon. Figure 3 New Home Sales per 1,000 Adults (monthly, single-family homes, SAAR, Jan-60 to Mar-16) 20 20 5 = 2 S. 3 A 5 = 18 2 oo S Ff 18 3 5 = = = 16 16 be 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Jan-60 Jan-65 Jan-70 Jan-75 Jan-80 Jan-85 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics Far from being a change agent, once Obama took office, he doubled down on the Bush economic agenda, kept Bush’s key economic advisors and thereby created further down-drafts for the economy. The simple fact that absolutely leaps off these charts is the abysmal record attained by the 7+ years of the Obama Administration. To be fair, the decline began when “W’” took office and accelerated greatly when Bush, aided by Geithner and Bernanke, bailed everyone out and spent huge sums of U.S. resources trying to stimulate the economy—all to no avail. To me, the circumstances today are almost identical to those of 1980—16 years of bad economics about to be followed by a political renaissance. For Hillary Clinton, the Obama record on the economy will be her biggest negative come November. And the very fact that she actually sought out and embraces this legacy speaks volumes about her judgement. lll. All Elections are Referenda on Incumbents The Mood of the Country — The History of the Gallup Poll Whether fair or not, Hillary Clinton is viewed as a Democratic insider and establishment regular. As such, she benefits greatly in her ability to raise money and attract superdelegate support. But, there’s also a downside to being a Democratic insider and establishment regular today. When the electorate is unhappy with the direction the country is heading, she'll also be blamed right along with the President and other members of his party. This is exactly what happened to the Presidencies of Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Bush Sr., Bush “W” and presumptively Obama. If any one of you remembers the contested Democratic primary of 1980 when Senator Ted Kennedy challenged his party’s sitting President, you will be reminded of the current Democratic primary where Bernie Sanders continues to humiliate Hillary Clinton, primary after primary. While Senator Kennedy lost in his quest to secure the Democratic nomination, he clearly exposed all the weaknesses of President Carter, just as Senator Bernie Sanders is exposing Hilary Clinton’s vulnerability. This can’t be good news for Mrs. Clinton. For quite some time now, | have been using the Gallup poll question, “Are you satisfied with the way things are going?” as my measure of the electorate’s level of discontent. This question has been posed by Gallup for years and years and, thus, the HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025300