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Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] To put substance into the predictive power of state and local election results for presidential elections, | have graphically aligned state house results for all states with state senate results for all states and gubernatorial results for all states by year. 3800 3500 3200 2900 State House 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 State Senate 900 800 700 600 Governors State House, Senate, and Governorships Figure 7 (1976-1998: biannual, 2000-2016: annual) © = > 3 em] Democrat @ @ ce Republican Democrat = @ = « Republican = = =» Republican Democrat © oO N lo [oe] = wT ed few) wo © NM NM oO oe) [oe] [op] [op] [op] few) fan) 2 Oo oO oO o oO Oo o oa oOo oOo oOo Y Y Y Y Ss Y v BS N N N Source: U.S 2015 3800 3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 . Census Bureau, NCSL While by no means perfect, there is clearly a close correlation between a party’s success in state and local elections, and that party’s success in the upcoming presidential election. Republican landslide. If that close correlation holds in November of 2016, there will be a HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308