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Summary of Open Trades (08-Aug-16)
Table 7: Summary of open trades as of 08-Aug-16
Trade Description
Long SX5E vs short SPX Dec18 var swap
Long NKY vs short SPX Dec18 var swap
Long SX5E vs short SPX Dec18 put vs put
Long 3M 25d EFA put vs short 3M 25d UKX put
Buy CMB Sep16 105-115% call spread
Buy ICBC Sep16 105-115% call spread
Buy BOC Sep16 105-115% call spread
Long 0.5x V2X Oct16 future, long 0.5x V2X Nov16
future, short V2X Jan-17 future
Buy a 6M ATM worst-of call on XLP & GLD
Buy a 6M ATM worst-of {SPX put, GLD call}
Buy Oct16 110%f calls on VIE FP, Al FP, IBE SQ,
STAN LN and MUV2 GY
Buy an Oct16 110%F call on an equally weighted
basket (quanto EUR)
Buy TLS 25-Aug16 95% puts
Buy CSL 25-Aug-16 95% puts
Buy Newcrest 25-Aug-16 105/115% call spreads
Buy BHP 25-Aug-16 105/115% call spreads
Replace T long position via 3M ATM calls
Replace LOW long position via 3M ATM calls
Replace RTN long position via 3M ATM calls
Replace CRM long position via 3M ATM calls
Replace CRM long position via 3M ATM calls
Overlay long WBA long position with 3M ATM calls
Buy a 6M ATM best-of put on SPX & TLT
Buy a 1Y ATM worst-of call on SPX & TLT
Buy XLF Sep 24 strike call
Buy XLU Sep 51 strike put
Buy a 6M ATM worstof {XLF call, XLU put}
Sell 1x SX7E 1M 25d call to fully finance 1.85x
SX5E 1M 25d calls
Short VIX Oct 15 put vs. long VIX Nov 19/26 call
spread
Buy HSCEI Aug16 9400 call, Short Oct16 10000 call 1-Aug-
Open
Date
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
5-Jul-16
1-Jul-
1-Jul-
8-Jul-
(=
co
¢
=
25-Jul-
29-Jul-
20-J
25-Jul-
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[a
Ge ac ceic oo eg cle Sas
T TOT TT TT OT OT TT TT
=
1-Aug-
T
DPF AWD AAHADDWAWAWAAWDWAwADDWBDDOD DH
cop]
6
mr DOD DH
Open
Level
6.1 vols
5.7 vols
0.00%
0.00%
2.32%
2.12%
2.10%
0.25 vols
1.05%
1.60%
2.37%
0.81%
1.05%
1.09%
2.64%
2.22%
2.12%
3.90%
3.16%
416%
2.32%
404%
0.8%
0.9%
A%
3%
39%
0.0%
0.45
0.00%
Trade
Value
5.2 vols
4.9 vols
-0.62%
0.16%
3.01%
417%
3.79%
-0.28 vols
0.48%
1.01%
2.37%
0.69%
1.67%
0.72%
1.90%
1.26%
2.50%
3.66%
3.45%
3.50%
1.26%
249%
0.49%
0.83%
1.9%
2.5%
2.31%
0.28%
$0.125
0.04%
Expected
Trade Term
Dec-18 expiry
3 months
Sep-16 SQ
expiry
Oct-16 expiry
6 months
6 months
Oct-16 expiry
Oct-16 expiry
25-Aug-16
3 months
3 months
6 months
1 year
Sep-16 expiry
6 months
1 month
Oct VIX expiry
Aug-16 expiry
Rationale
Investors should re-assess attractiveness of popular and (typically) technically
motivated longer-dated RV vol trades, given environment of structurally higher
political & economic risks and increasingly limited policy options
FTSE 3M 25d put vol near 7hr highs vs. vol on EFA
Continuous Southbound inflow benefit financials sector and narrow AH premium
Hedge further Brexit fallout, Italian bank & referendum risk
Cheaply construct risk-limited “uber-barbell” portfolio
Low-cost macro hedge for US equity portfolios
Add exposure via inexpensive upside on single names where positioning appears
particularly bearish and stocks have underperformed vs. their sectors
To hedge potential earning downside surprise
To hedge potential earnings upside surprises
Our analysts expect positive and impactful catalysts in Q3-2016; recent strong
performance and depressed short dated implied vol favor stock replacement via
calls to reduce downside risk, maintain upside and lock in profits
Position for accelerated upside returns ahead of closing the Rite Aid acquisition
Cheap hedge against a bond tantrum
Cheap equity upside in a bond / equity melt-up
Record outperformance of Utilities vs. Financials + FMS positioning + central bank
catalysts = potential for cyclicals / defensives mean reversion
SX7E 1M 25d call / SX5E 1M 25d call price ratio is in the 100‘ 2-yr percentile
Sell VIX Oct puts to leverage likely floor in vol ahead of US elections and cheapen
shallow hedges
Short-term bullish China trade with term structure at its steepest in 4yrs
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Prices reflective of most recently available data which may be delayed in some cases. “Trade Value” represents current valuation of trades initiated on the “Open Date”.
Summary of Closed Trades (08-Aug-16)
Table 8: Summary of closed trades as of 08-Aug-16
Trade Description
Buy NKY Aug-16 105%-110% call spreads & sell
90% puts
Replace FB long positions via Oct-16 ATM calls
Replace AMZN long positions via Oct-16 ATM calls
Buy AAPL Oct-16 ATM protective puts
Buy 1.5x 5-Aug-16 2950-3000 strangles by selling
1x 19-Aug-16 2950-3000 strangles
Sell NKY Aug16 15500 puts, Buy Sep16 15500-
14500 put spreads
Open
Date
11-Jul-
25-Jul-
25-Jul-
25-Jul-
25-Jul-
25-Jul-
for] rm DD for]
6
Open
Level
0.26%
5.9%
5.5%
46%
0.00%
0.24%
Close
Level
1.73%
6.1%
6.3%
1.2%
-1.12%
0.28%
Close Date
25-Jul-16
1-Aug-16
1-Aug-16
1-Aug-16
5-Aug-16
Aug-16 expiry &
Sep-16 expiry
Rationale
Take profit as the hurdle to surprise on the upside is high following a 5.8% NKY rally
Take profit as Facebook rallied on better-than expected Q2 results
Take profit as Amazon rallied on better-than expected Q2 results
Remove protection as worries around disappointing Q4 guidance faded post earnings
The BoJ, Fed & EU bank stress tests could move mkts sharply in the near term
Unwinding before the Aug16 expiry; The NKY Sep put spread has carried well
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Prices reflective of most recently available data which may be delayed in some cases. “Trade Value” represents current valuation of trades initiated on the “Open Date”.
20
Global Equity Volatility Insights | 09 August 2016
BankofAmerica <2”
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025997