HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026136.jpg
Extracted Text (OCR)
Also, collection of taxes has increased significantly (34% increase in 2 years) and
spending has been contained while at the same time energy/utility tariffs have
increased dramatically at full cost recovery basis.
The main reforms agreed with the IMF include the privatisation of large state
enterprises such as the Odessa Portside Plant and Centrenergo, the lifting of the
embargo on the sale of agricultural land to foreigners, the raising of the pension
age, the restructuring of the health system and the increase in efforts combating
corruption.
Most of these reforms, although not expected to be completed in the immediate
term, they are expected to be implemented in a gradual process.
For example, land reform may be initiated partially by privatising state agricultural
land (1 billion hectares). 25% of world’s black-earth soil is in Ukraine, considered
the most fertile and productive agricultural land. Over 70% of Ukraine is
agricultural land valued at US$100 billion. Ukraine is the biggest exporter in
sunflower oil globally, 2°4 in world grain exporter after the US and 3% in corn
exports globally. The land reform is expected to elevate the country’s performance
with significant FDIs from international investors.
On the pension front, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft of the pension
reform-IMF and World Bank already supported the draft- and will discuss it at the
National Reform Council, to be then submitted to the Rada (parliament). The
pension reform was long overdue, given that the Pension Fund deficit reached
UAH 140 billion or 6.3% of GDP in 2016. Pension reform is considered to be one
of the most socially sensitive reforms the government is planning to implement
under the current IMF Extended Arrangement. However, it seems that the
government has managed to avoid the most unpopular measure of increasing the
statutory pension age while increasing the effective pension age. The proposed
reform will assist in reducing the deficit starting from mid-2018.
The implementation of the reforms should assist the government in managing the
debt profile of the country presented below. While there is no imminent need for
IMF disbursements, 2019 (presidential and parliamentary) elections coincide with
a US$7 billion peak of public sector FX needs, while US$12 billion is due in total
in 2017-19. The authorities need to secure sufficient FX funding in advance, while
the alternative funding sources are limited. The FX reserves increased to US$17
billion, but cover 3.8 months of imports only.
As already described in the recent IMF review, Ukraine is expected to re-access the
international capital market as early as the second part of 2017 supported by the
improved debt profile resulting from the recent debt operation (perimeter of the
debt operation included sovereign and sovereign guaranteed Eurobonds, City of
Kyiv Eurobonds, Guaranteed Commercial Loans and SOE debt) for a total nominal
3
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026136