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start out in striking distance in any three-way poll against Trump and a fill-in-the-blank
Democratic flavor-of-the day candidate. The media and political class will predetermine
irrelevance otherwise.
A Democrat-leaning candidate would have to top the ideal third-party ticket. We need someone
with a shot at snaking a plurality of the vote in the blue states Hillary Clinton won (227 electoral
votes), but moderate enough to win a plurality in some combination of Trump states like Florida,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (another 119 votes). The right candidate may even to put
North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana in play for a centrist bi-partisan ticket as well (totaling an electoral
sweep of 464 elector votes). A right leaning candidate would meet the same fate as a primary
challenger to Trump — for all intents and purposes we need to assume that 36% of voters won’t be
cleaved from Trump under any circumstances and run to win around them. The deep red states
would be off the table entirely.
With the Trump reality show airing daily, voters are now expecting to take their politics with a side
of entertainment. Heretofore, ratings will matter no matter how dry the policy topic. Surely
Stephen Colbert would gladly sacrifice his executive producer Chris Licht to produce a daily
comedic segment of this dream candidate interviewing Americans in truck stops and McDonald’s
across the country. A few of the “Saturday Night Live” script writers could certainly be enticed to
disguise serious debates as informative amusement. Any candidate must be committed to a near
daily cadence of high quality, compelling video production. It will be especially crucial to keep
the voters’ attention during what will be a raucous Democratic primary season. Rules governing
access to the general election debate stage dictate that a candidate enjoy support of at least 15% of
voters in the months leading up to the general election.
This dream candidate would pledge to serve only four years and address all of the U.S.’s ticking
time bombs like Social Security, Medicare, health care reform, climate change, money in politics,
gerrymandering, and infrastructure investment in a single term. This one-and-done term decouples
our candidate from the usual politics and gives them the power of promise and deliver decisive
action. A four-year term pledge ensures governance independent of campaign finance concerns and
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