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exchanged rising economic and political inequality for overall prosperity. We have simply reached a point where this rising inequality is no longer sustainable in democracies. This is not too different from what Beijing has been struggling with — to slow down the headline economic growth rate in exchange for more balance in various parts of the economy, in order to allow its development to be more sustainable. The parallels in the West seem quite clear to me. Fighting against this shift in the West, as most mainstream media seem to be doing, is tantamount to those in China who are fighting against the economic slowdown. (1) TPP is effectively dead, even though there are some who are urging that TPP goes ahead without the US. But I think multilateral trade pacts are in jeopardy. The Trump Administration still wants to have trade arrangements, but they will be bilateral and done with countries deemed friendly to the US. (2) The UK is in a great position to deal with the Trump Administration because all the UK needs is a bilateral trade arrangement that won’t take as long to work out, compared to a multilateral trade arrangement. The UK just went from the ‘back of the queue’ (which was an insulting declaration by President Obama, conspicuously using the word ‘queue’ to make sure the Brits understood him) to the ‘front of the line.’ (3) China was never a part of the TPP discussions. In fact, TPP was designed from day one to marginalise China, to replace the current trade arrangement based on WTO rules to something that puts China at a disadvantage. This is why Beijing is not unhappy with the Trump Administration’s desire to terminate the TPP discussions. (4) ‘America First’ does not only mean ‘world second,’ that the US will take actions to benefit the US even if these policies come at the expense of the rest of the world. It also means that policies will be aimed at addressing the inequality and inequity in the US, even if it means that the overall effects on the US may be negative. (5) In sum, I don’t think trade globalisation will reverse. But it will slow down dramatically and be substituted with a different web of bilateral arrangements. I think this is a positive development, as the previous model of global growth was unsustainable, even if it generated the biggest aggregate prosperity for the world. (6) The next US Treasury Secretary will likely be instructed by President Trump to label China as a currency manipulator. While this would be a verdict without basis, in my view, such a finding could be used as an excuse to escalate the talks of protectionism. Some musings... (1) President Obama just awarded his last round of Presidential Medals of Freedom (America’s highest civilian honour) to Michael Jordan, Ellen DeGeneres, Robert de Niro, and others. Many of these award recipients were vocal critics of Mr Trump. My views on politics really don’t matter... But for what it is worth, the reason why I have been more vocal than I should have been about Brexit and the US Elections is related to my own personal experience. I have witnessed how a previous harmonious society could very quickly degenerate into a permanent state of HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026644