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important to appreciate, I think, because if one believed that the direction of causality is the opposite, that Trump causes other changes that would have been avoidable if Ms Clinton had won, one would come up with the wrong conclusions on what to do to stop the global shift in sentiment. (2) The Economist had a special edition last week on the rising nationalism in the developed West, as if it’s an unfounded, random and sinister event that needs to be suppressed by all means necessary. For various reasons, the political left is in decline in the developed West. Look at the UK’s Labour Party and the US’ Democratic Party. In France, only 1 out of 20 people approves of Hollande’s performance. (3) The Presidential race in France is now between the Centre Right (Mr Fillon from the Republican Party) and the Far Right (Ms Le Pen from National Front). The pendulum in Europe, in my view, will swing to the right, and possibly overshoot, as pendulums tend to do... which is not good, but an unavoidable consequence of the pendulum having overshot to the left in the past... In any case, with the Republican primary being out of the way, the campaign will start in earnest, with the first round of the Presidential elections to take place in April and the second round in May. FWIW, Mr Fillon looks like a stronger candidate than Mr Sarkozy to challenge Ms Le Pen. France, under Mr Fillon, could very well enter a period of economic reform and rejuvenation, I am guessing. In short, Mr Fillon’s victory last weekend could be a major positive for France, I think. The trouble with macroeconomics. The rebellion against the establishment has also begun in the nerdy field of macro economics, led in part by Prof Paul Romer of the Stern School of Business. He, of course, has made enemies in the field with his view — a view I share: ‘For more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backwards. The treatment of identification now is no more credible than in the early 1970s but escapes challenge because it is so much more opaque. Macroeconomic theorists dismiss mere facts by feigning an obtuse ignorance about such simple assertions as "tight monetary policy can cause a recession." Their models attribute fluctuations in aggregate variables to imaginary causal forces that are not influenced by the action that any person takes. A parallel with string theory from physics hints at a general failure mode of science that is triggered when respect for highly regarded leaders evolves into a deference to authority that displaces objective fact from its position as the ultimate determinant of scientific truth.’ Group think has become a serious impediment to advances and renewals in this important field. Misguided policies have also had significant consequences for people’s lives around the world. Trade globalization. There will likely be a shift from unconditional, uncontrolled, and unmanaged trade globalisation, 1.e. ‘free trade’, to ‘fair trade,’. Trade globalisation of the type that we have just experienced HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026643