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Extracted Text (OCR)
While central bank investment tranches are
in some ways comparable to sovereign portfolios,
they are differentiated by the former's broader
market functions
While there are similarities in the approach taken to
investment tranches (in terms of risk asset allocation
and development of internal capability), central banks
have a broader set of functions, including local market
money supply, the role of lender of last resort and
currency exchange rate regime management. These
factors have considerable influence over investment
strategy and capacity, and differentiate central banks
from sovereign investors.
In last year’s report, we focused on emerging
market (EM) central banks due to their increasing
use of investment tranches (reserves sub-portfolios
which prioritise investment return over liquidity),
which have similar allocations to sovereign investor
portfolios. We noted that many of the respondent
banks were moving up the risk spectrum in response
to achieving capital preservation in the face of low
and negative yields, and that reserve managers were
allocating higher levels of reserves to the investment
tranche. We explore how central banks in developed
markets with low financial market exposure have
followed emerging market reserve managers up the
risk spectrum.
Low banking sector exposure is accompanied
by lesser build-up in the levels of reserves and
a growing appetite for risk assets
In this year’s report, we have expanded our central
bank sample and segmented the central bank
universe into developed and emerging markets to
understand differences in strategy and pace of change
with respect to investment tranches. Within developed
market central banks, we further segmented them
into two categories: those with high exposure to
financial markets (DM High FME) and those with
low exposure (DM Low FME?). We summarise these
classifications in figure 27.
While there are various means of calculating
reserves adequacy (with import coverage and short-
term debt coverage most frequently cited in figure
28), all measures link level of reserves to potential
drawdown of funds. Following the Global Financial
Crisis of 2008, DM High FME central banks increased
estimates of the likelinood and size of potential
drawdowns, increasing the level of reserves over
the intervening years to better equip themselves as
‘lenders of last resort’. In 2016, this trend continued
with DM High FME central banks increasing reserves
more rapidly than DM Low FME and EM (figure 29).
DM High FME reserve managers rely on these large
net inflows to maintain high levels of liquidity (with
67% of respondents describing reserves as ‘ample’
in figure 30), and focus less on capital preservation
and investment returns. Furthermore, reserve
managers in High FME markets noted that they are
unwilling to invest in risk assets such as equities
or asset-backed securities as they are seeking to
diversify (not correlate) their reserves from local
financial market shocks.
IMeasure of financial exposure based on World Bank
Global Financial Development - Private credit by
deposit money banks and other financial institutions
to GDP (%), 24 June 2016.
Medium/Low Medium/Low
High/Medium Medium
Ww
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