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lran: US Congress will not stop nuclear deal; EU already moving forward — fast. What’s next? ; Real GDP Growth - P5+1 and Iran reached a deal. Big percent obstacle has been overcome: Enough US Senators support to ensure it can move forward. - Saudi Arabia “supports” the deal. The Saudi king was in DC last month. US has quietly promised nuclear protection and massive weapons sales. - Market implications of a deal are significant, especially for European IF Forecast 7 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 cif exports in $ billion 140 corporates eager to get back into Iran m MENA : ‘ . Others marketplace (i.e. Italian PM Renzi already m Turkey visited Tehran as has German FM). | pa laalbannrtin - lran wants to build 400 four & five star , a“ 6© hotels in next five to ten years. - But do not expect any significant oil export increase and/or sales into Iran for at least 8 — 10 months. Iran must first comply and set up systems for inspections. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IIF; IMF Deutsche Bank Francis J. Kelly Global Public Affairs francis.j.kelly@db.com 16 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026810