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The Scowcroft Group 900 17th Street, NW * Suite 500 Washington, DC 20006 Pro www.scowcroft.com e The universal horror at what happened in Paris is likely to strengthen the determination of countries gathered in Vienna for the Syria conference to better coordinate and prosecute the campaign against ISIS in Syria and Ira. Bottom Line: Has risk to the United States increased? There are no indications yet that ISIS has changed its approach here. It encourages radicalization and lone wolf attacks but has not mounted direct attacks. But the Metrojet bombing has resulted in a stepped up global effort to secure American airlines. So too, targeting of American institutions/events — it is unlikely a coincidence that an American band was playing at the site of the largest causalities in Paris -- seems highly probable. This applies equally to American bases and facilities overseas, including embassies. © The Scowcroft Group WARNING: This document and the information contained herein are intended only for the personal and confidential use of clients of The Scowcroft Group. If you are not an intended recipient of this document, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, copying, quotation, or other use of this document without the prior approval of The Scowcroft Group is strictly prohibited. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026828