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Investment . . Management Risks to Our Views (Presented in our 2019 Outlook) Division Pm = In the near term, the most likely source of a domestic shock is the fallout from one of the investigations—by multiple state attorneys general and the House of Representatives—of President Trump. = The ebb and flow of these investigations will inevitably lead to great market volatility. But there is greater likelihood that exogenous shocks will come from external sources, rather than domestic ones. = External exogenous shocks Trade War with China (S/172019 ISG Client Call) or continued slowing growth in China Brexit Auto Tariffs Russia Middle East North Korea Cyberattacks Terrorism 2 Source: Investment Strategy Group. HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026946