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between Sunnis and Alawites in Syria would profoundly disturb the
whole region, creating a nightmare scenario for Washington and
other Western capitals.
Meanwhile, Washington seems at a loss as to how to respond to the
growing unrest in Syria. In tempered language, the administration has
condemned the use of violence against civilians and encouraged
political reform. But the undertones are evident: Stability in Syria
may still preferable to yet another experiment in Arab governance.
Assad will need to act quickly and decisively -- and one hopes not
harshly -- to quell the rising current of dissent. Indeed, Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton seemed to offer the regime some modest support
this weekend, noting that she believed Bashar to be a "reformer." But
reform has never been a primary goal of the Assad clan, which has
long favored stability over change.
This edifice may now be crumbling, and the United States would be
wise to spend a little less time thinking about Libya and a little more
time thinking about a state that truly has implications on U.S.
national interests. If things go south in Syria, blood-thirsty sectarian
demons risk being unleashed, and the entire region could be
consumed in an orgy of violence.
Patrick Seale is a British writer who specializes in Middle East
affairs. His latest book is The Struggle for Arab Independence: Riad
el-Solh and the Makers of the Modern Middle East.
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