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ADW Capital Partners, L.P.
17/18/2014
2nd Quarter 2014 and YTD Performance Report " 2)
2014
Q2
2014
Inception
To Date
Gross Return
20.40%
18.91%
258.97%
Dow Jones
2.80%
2.68%
57.22%
NASDAQ
4.98%
5.54%
64.41%
(1) The table above reflects the performance of the Fund for the current quarter, year-to-date and since inception of
the Fund. Net returns are net of underlying management and performance fees and expenses as well as brokerage
and/or custodial fees and expenses. All returns include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Quarterly
and year-to-date figures are estimates and unaudited and have been calculated by the Fund's independent
administrator. SS&C Fund Services. The Fund's performance results have been audited for calendar years 2011.
2012. and 2013 by the Fund's independent auditor. Marcum LLP. Inception-to-date figures incorporate audited results
from prior years and unaudited results from the current year. Statements from the fund's prime broker (BTIG) and
custodian (Goldman Sachs) can be provided upon further request. Past performance is not necessarily an indication
of future performance or profitability. See Important Notes on page 5.
(2) References to Dow Jones. S&P 500. NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and other indices are for informational purposes
only. See Important Notes on page 5.
Dear Partners,
It is my pleasure to report results for the second quarter of 2014, the 14° quarter since
inception.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I want to reiterate a critical point discussed in all
quarterly letters. ADW Capital Partners, L.P. (the "Fund') operates a concentrated, tax-
sensitive, and long-term strategy designed to minimize correlation to the broader indices with a
focus on avoiding permanent capital loss. Inevitably, this approach will result in periods of
underperformance. By the same token, our efforts to maintain a lower correlation strategy driven
by company specific outcomes may produce significant outperformance in periods of market
weakness, as we saw in 2011. We are not traders, return chasers, or month-to-month stock
jockeys. We are investors who look for opportunities to return multiples on the Fund's capital
tax-efficiently over an extended period of time. While this strategy may yield lumpy results, we
believe it limits idea dilution and protects the Fund's returns from Uncle Sam and Wall Street.
Portfolio Update:
As we mentioned in our 1s' quarter update, we believe our value discipline on cash flows and
unloved "boring businesses" is coming back into vogue as evidenced by solid and broad-based
gains across the portfolio in the second quarter.
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ADW Capital Partners, L.P.
17/18/2014
While at times we are quite tight lipped about the portfolio as we may be actively buying or
selling securities, we do like to take opportunities to discuss individual positions to illustrate our
thought process when it does not conflict with the interests of the fund's trading / its limited
partners.
To that end, we would like to discuss an ongoing investment in the portfolio — Graphic
Packaging (NYSE:GPK). Graphic Packaging or "the Company is a classic special situation
investment and checks most if not all of the boxes on our investment checklist.
In its simplest form, Graphic Packaging is one of the largest vertically integrated packaging
companies in North America. The Company manufactures and supplies the boxes/packaging for
many of the largest consumer packaged goods companies in North America. Whether its craft
beer or Pop-Tarts or Grape Nuts or Tide, the Company most likely provides the packaging for a
product you use on a daily basis. In fact, the Company was originally owned by Molson Coors
and was spun off about twenty years ago. In the last ten years, the Company was largely
controlled by private equity and went through a number of mergers and acquisitions contributing
to the substantial consolidation of the industry. In the most recent iteration, the Company
merged/acquired Altivity Packaging from TPG in July 2007. While the merged entity would have
a dominant market position and would have very steady and predictable cash flows, Graphic
clearly "overpaid" and left the remaining entity with a Debt to EBITDA ratio close to 7 times. So
even if EBITDA remained stable or grew, if the Company lost a turn of EBITDA in its enterprise
valuation the equity would bear the brunt of the decline — which it did with the equity declining
from $6.00 a share to almost $1.00 from the time of the merger to the outset of '09.
As value investors, we like to rely on our observations from past investments to guide us with
future ones. To that end, we noticed that Graphic Packaging greatly resembled our investment
in Headwaters •• a "levered rollup" that overpaid for good assets and was now being punished
by the market. In many ways, Graphic Packaging was a superior investment as the company
actually grew its volumes / EBITDA over the course of the recession! Graphic had proven how
stable it was of an operating business but just took on too much debt at the wrong time. Over
the next several years, the Company religiously cut costs, found production efficiencies, paid
down its debt and won market share from smaller players who couldn't compete with Graphic as
the best low cost provider of consumer packaging.
But throughout all of these improvements, a strange phenomenon had been occurring. While
the firm's stock price increased consistently over the years, its valuation contracted. For
example, if you take into account the growth in the firm's EBITDA and the new debt levels from
cash flow pay down, the Company traded at Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiples lower than
they were at the depths of the recession! To make matters worse, the Company had recognized
the fundamental disconnect in its valuation and was able to purchase over twenty percent of the
Company in the last couple of years.
After a thorough analysis of the Company's history, industry, and end-market's, we realized the
Company suffered from a "stock problem" and not a business problem. Over time "problem
stocks" can become great investments, especially if the businesses are doing well and getting
better. The problem that Graphic Packaging had is that it was an orphan stock. At the outset of
'09, the stock was very thinly traded with over eighty percent of the Company held by the Coors
Family and other private equity sponsors and had little to no equity research coverage. To
compound this issue, the private equity owners were obligated to return capital to their limited
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17/18/2014
partners based on their fund's lifecycles -- so were often in the market selling stock for
"uneconomic reasons".
We finally decided to initiate our position in November of 2013 at around $8.00 a share. Our
rationale was simple. The Company was generating close to a 20 percent free cash flow yield
that we were confident would be deployed into accretive acquisitions, debt pay down, or
buybacks — returned to shareholders. More simply, if the firm's multiple did not increase or
EBITDA didn't grow, the shares would appreciate by about 20 percent a year — a more than
adequate return. Another way to look at it was that we were getting any appreciation in the
firm's multiple or growth in profitability for free!
But beyond the simple arithmetic, our research uncovered a number of other interesting factors
contributing to our decision to make an investment at that juncture. The first observation was
that the Company was entering into a period of long term margin improvement / re-rating.
Historically, CPG customers had engaged in what they called "value engineering" with Graphic
and its competitors. As the Companies got larger and were able to move down the cost curve
the CPG's would demand that they were to be the beneficiary of these cost cuts in exchange for
additional volumes. The only pricing growth Graphic and its competitors were getting were input
cost inflation and even that reset as input prices moved down. The resulting factor was a stable
unexciting business that could grow low single digits organically but with limited margin growth.
Over the last few years, the industry consolidated into a virtual oligopoly with Graphic and
MeadWestvaco ostensibly controlling their end markets. Being rational actors, the two of them
refused to engage in these practices and the CPG's had no other option then to let Graphic
keep the efficiencies they were earning. We expect this trend to continue with management re-
iterating intermediate term margin targets of over 20 percent — almost six percent higher than
historical averages.
A second and perhaps more meaningful "stock" observation we made is that trading volume
was increasing and that private equity had already sold a large share of their position and would
most likely "sell into a buyback / secondary offering" in the fourth quarter like they had in
previous years, which would continue to reduce the seller overhang while at the same time
increasing liquidity. As liquidity becomes available, it is easier for Wall Street analysts to get
constructive on the name as trading revenue becomes available for their sales people.
A third observation we made is that the packaging space over the last few years had been
somewhat soft from the volume side and was poised for a rebound with analysts already
constructive on Graphic's peer group. Our channel checks also rendered data that was
increasingly bullish on end markets.
Thankfully our observations / thesis played out nicely and the shares appreciated from $8.00 a
share to almost $12.00 at the end of the second quarter. But a good business getting better is
the gift that keeps on giving for a value and tax conscious investor! We believe that the
Company still offers significant upside at a 14 percent free cash flow yield on our 2015
estimates while its peers trade anywhere from 6 to 8 percent. We also believe the Company has
a tremendous reinvestment opportunity in consolidating the European market like it did in North
America while simultaneously increasing its purchasing power and production efficiencies
across the entire Company. One nuanced feature we are excited regarding growing in Europe is
that most of these Companies are domiciled in tax jurisdictions of 20 percent or less so the
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17/18/2014
Company's after tax return on invested capital is incredibly attractive on top of the already low
multiples they are paying on recovering European assets.
Operational Update/Conclusion:
The Fund is off to a strong start in 2014 and continues to grow. Thankfully, our consistent and
methodical growth has allowed us to make some large and positive changes to the organization
in the second quarter. The first development is that the fund and its staff are moving. The fund
had been subletting space from another fund in midtown and our personnel requirements have
finally outgrown our space. On August 1st, the fund will be relocating to 1133 Broadway Suite
719. We are excited about finally having a space of our own that we can share and host with all
of you. Please drop us a line if you would like to come and visit!
The second and perhaps more exciting development is that our full-time headcount has now
doubled. We would like to welcome Peter "Pete" Hanselmann to the ADW team as our Chief
Financial Officer and Director of Operations.
Pete was most recently an analyst in the Operational Due Diligence group at Aksia, which
serves as a consultant/advisor for some of the world's largest institutional investors. In this role,
he conducted operational due diligence on over 75 investment managers across a wide array of
strategies analyzing firm structure, operational processes, fund financial statements and offering
documents, valuation procedures and regulatory and compliance procedures and issues.
Prior to joining Aksia in July 2013, Pete managed and completed financial statement audits of
hedge funds, private equity funds and fund of funds with a focus on valuation and detailed
financial statement analysis procedures as an experienced Audit Associate at Rothstein Kass
working in the Financial Services Audit Practice. In addition to completing audits, Pete also was
an active participant in efficiency initiatives designed to streamline workflow processes across
all firm practices.
Pete graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 2010 with a B.B.A. in Accounting with a
second major in Economics. Pete continued his education at the University of Notre Dame,
graduating in 2011 with his Master of Science in Accountancy degree with a concentration in
Financial Reporting and Assurance. Pete received his Certified Public Accountant designation
in 2013. Additionally, Pete has begun the process of achieving the CFA designation; he took
the Level 1 examination in June 2014 and is eagerly awaiting the results in early August 2014.
I want to thank all of you again for the opportunity to steward your capital and I look forward to
many more years with you.
As always, I am available by phone/email to discuss any other questions you may have or about
the exciting opportunity set we are currently deploying capital into.
Regards,
Adam D. Wyden
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ADW Capital Partners, L.P.
I 7/18/2014
IMPORTANT NOTES
This report is being furnished by ADW Capital Management, LLC ("ADW') on a confidential
basis to existing limited partners in ADW Capital Partners, L.P. (the "Fund') and does not
constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or an offer to buy any securities,
investment products or investment advisory services. This report is being provided to existing
limited partners for informational purposes only, and may not be disseminated, communicated
or otherwise disclosed by the recipient to any third party without the prior written consent of
ADW. Any offer or solicitation of an investment in the Fund may be made only by delivery of the
Fund's confidential private offering memorandum to qualified investors.
An investment in the Fund involves a significant degree of risk, and there can be no assurance
that its investment objectives will be achieved or that its investments will be profitable. Unless
otherwise noted, the performance results of the Fund included in this report are presented on a
net-of-fees basis and reflect the deduction of, among other things, underlying management and
performance fees and expenses as well as brokerage and/or custodial fees and expenses.
Performance results also include the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Certain of
the performance information presented in this report are unaudited estimates based upon the
information available to ADW as of the date hereof, and are subject to subsequent revision as a
result of the Fund's audit. An investor's actual performance and actual fees may differ from the
performance information shown due to, among other factors, capital contributions, withdrawals
and eligibility to participate in "new issues." The value of investments can go down as well as
up. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance or profitability. An
investment in the Fund is subject to a wide variety of risks and considerations as detailed in the
confidential private offering memorandum of the Fund.
References to Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and other indices herein are for
informational and general comparative purposes only. There are significant differences between
such indices and the investment program of the Fund. The Fund does not invest in all or
necessarily any significant portion of the securities, industries or strategies represented by such
indices. References to indices do not suggest that the Fund will, or is likely to achieve returns,
volatility or other results similar to such indices.
This report and the accompanying discussion include forward-looking statements. All
statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, including any statements
that relate to future market conditions, results, operations, strategies or other future conditions
or developments and any statements regarding objectives, opportunities, positioning or
prospects. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon speculation, expectations,
estimates and assumptions that are inherently unreliable and subject to significant business,
economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Forward-looking statements are not
a promise or guaranty about future events.
The information in this presentation is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for,
accounting, legal, or tax advice or investment recommendations. Each recipient should consult
its own tax, legal, accounting, financial, or other advisors about the issues discussed herein.
CONFIDENTIAL
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