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Extracted Text (OCR)
The Russian government owned banks, making up the 8.4% of the banking assets,
are heavily undercapitalised being below the required norms because of
underprovided problematic loan portfolios with NBU imposing certain sanctions.
Moreover, there have been many aggressive actions from Ukrainian activists
because of the war conflict and all of them, namely Sberbank, VTB (controls two
banks in Ukraine, VTB and BM Bank) and Prominvestbank, have announced their
departure by selling the banks. So far the sale of Sberbank has been agreed to
Norvik bank of Latvia that belongs to individuals of Russian origin, pending the
approval from the NBU.
The banks with Ukrainian capital in the top 20 banks share 6% of assets with the
most notable being FUIB of Mr Akhmetov.
Proposal
I would propose the acquisition of a profitable bank with lower than the average
NPL portfolio, operated by a West European shareholder, with a reasonable market
share and of a digestible acquisition price in order to capture the projected 4-year
economic growth trend in Ukraine (base scenario by IMF and EBRD) in a market
with:
= Small competition
Analysing the current landscape of the top 20 banks that command around 90%
market share of assets, there are very few banks that would be competent to
pursue business development given their specific circumstances.
The state owned banks that command the 52% are obviously bothered with
trapped legacy and corporate governance issues. All four banks are also
preparing for their potential privatisation, however, the task of transforming the
mentality of the staff of these banks to that similar of a private one should be
close to impossible, at least for a period of 3 years. I would have thought that
their liquidity would be most probably invested in government titles rather than
pursuing loans aggressively by competing at low interest rates.
The Russian government owned banks that command 8.4% are already at the
“sales process” stage and I believe that there will be no European investors that
would invest in such banks that are undercapitalised as officially NBU has
confirmed, with most of their loans being NPEs.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026140
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